By Dr. Amal Mudallali

Every week earlier than Wednesday’s assembly between US President Joe Biden and Chinese language chief Xi Jinping on the thirtieth Asia-Pacific Financial Cooperation discussion board summit in San Francisco, a airplane left Washington for China with three particular passengers aboard: the enormous pandas that have been loaned to the US in 2000 as an emblem of the then-budding relationship between the 2 international locations. Their departure was seen by the American media as a mirrored image of the present state of the connection between the 2 international locations.

Will the assembly between the American and Chinese language leaders reach stabilizing their relationship? Lots is hanging on this assembly after a really tense yr, by which communication and belief plunged and tensions soared even larger than when a Chinese language balloon entered American airspace and was shot down off the coast of South Carolina final yr, setting off a disaster between them.

The world is watching this summit and hoping for a detente after the downward spiral of the connection currently.

The 2 leaders meet at a fraught political and financial second on the planet, with experiences of a slowing Chinese language financial system and the headwinds American coverage is dealing with in two areas of the world. Two main conflicts, the Ukraine struggle and the Israel-Gaza struggle, are threatening US pursuits and stability in two of a very powerful areas of the world. They’re anticipated to be distinguished on the agenda.

In Ukraine, the place China is Russia’s “no-limits” good friend, the struggle has stalled with no method out, particularly for the US and the broader West, which invested closely in Ukraine within the hope of defeating Russian President Vladimir Putin and serving to Kyiv regain its misplaced territory.

Within the Center East, the US is dealing with a wave of anger over its help for Israel, whereas it worries in regards to the struggle increasing to threaten its troops and different pursuits within the area. The American facet factors to the shut relationship between China and Iran and, in accordance with The New York Occasions, US officers count on Biden “to emphasize to Premier XI that the USA will reply to any growth of the struggle brought on by Iran.”

However the US focus on the summit will likely be on the Asia-Pacific, Taiwan and the way forward for Sino-American relations.

Stabilizing the connection is probably the most that persons are hoping for right here. Specialists have cautioned towards excessive expectations. No breakthroughs are anticipated however measured progress could be made on some necessary points, particularly within the type of beginning processes that may transfer issues ahead.

Council on International Relations President Michael Froman informed CNBC the summit “won’t produce a grand cut price or resolve main points,” but it surely may “make modest progress” on some points.

US officers went to nice lengths within the days earlier than the summit to guarantee China that Washington doesn’t wish to “decouple” from Beijing and as a substitute desires a “wholesome and secure” relationship.

In a press briefing after her assembly with Chinese language Vice Premier He Lifeng in San Francisco final week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke in regards to the significance of the US-China relationship, noting that “the trail it takes will form alternatives and challenges for folks in each our international locations and all over the world.” She added that she informed He that the US doesn’t “search to decouple our financial system from China’s. This may be damaging to each the US and China and destabilizing for the world. However a wholesome financial relationship requires American employees and companies to be handled pretty.”

The identical message got here from Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo in an interview with CNN. She spoke in regards to the two international locations’ want “to stabilize the connection” and mentioned it’s time “to ratchet down the temperature. I believe the world is trying to the US and China to be accountable in managing this relationship.”

The American administration is making it clear that, whereas it’s going to be sure its “subtle” applied sciences like semiconductors and synthetic intelligence fashions “by no means get within the fingers of the Chinese language army,” as Raimondo mentioned, it’s eager to protect the financial and buying and selling relationship that the secretary mentioned is price $700 billion, of which 99 p.c of “has nothing to do with export controls.”

The Individuals level to China’s new anti-espionage legislation and its chilling impact on US companies’ want to spend money on China out of concern of being focused unfairly.

However the Chinese language even have their very own issues in regards to the relationship, significantly Washington’s intentions politically on Taiwan and the South China Sea and technologically relating to its exports to China. Chinese language Ambassador to the US Xie Feng was final week quoted as saying that China needed reassurances that the “US doesn’t search to alter China’s system, doesn’t search a brand new chilly struggle, doesn’t help Taiwan independence … and has no intention to hunt decoupling from China.”

Regardless of the tensions of the final yr, a breakthrough was made this month as the 2 international locations held a uncommon assembly in Washington to debate arms management and nonproliferation. The State Division described the assembly as “constructive” and mentioned in a press release that the US “emphasised the significance of elevated (Chinese language) nuclear transparency and substantive engagement on sensible measures to handle and cut back strategic dangers throughout a number of domains, together with nuclear and outer house.”

This assembly was crucial as a result of the arms management regime that was established by the US and Russia throughout the Chilly Warfare has all however crumbled, except the New START Treaty, leaving the world a extra harmful place. This month’s Russian withdrawal from the Complete Nuclear Check Ban Treaty was the most recent instance of the dismantling of this regime.

China has all the time been exterior this arms management construction as a result of the 2 Chilly Warfare superpowers personal 90 p.c of the world’s nuclear arsenal, whereas Beijing has a small quantity as compared. In keeping with the Worldwide Marketing campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, Russia has probably the most confirmed nuclear weapons, with 5,997 nuclear warheads, and the US follows with 5,428. It put China’s stockpile at 410 nuclear weapons.

US Nationwide Safety Adviser Jake Sullivan mentioned in June that China was on monitor to have as many as 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 — “one of many largest peacetime nuclear buildups in historical past.” And he famous that China had “to this point opted to not come to the desk for substantive dialogue on arms management.” Sullivan added that Washington needed China to “compartmentalize strategic stability from broader points within the relationship.”

This “compartmentalization” was one thing China objected to, but it surely appears one thing should have modified. Beijing accepting the beginning of strategic stability and arms management negotiations with the US is welcome information in Washington.

Biden should stroll a skinny line in San Francisco and stability two crucial constituencies. With an election lower than a yr away, he should present his home viewers and his allies within the Asia-Pacific that he’s powerful on China, whereas additionally assuring Beijing that the US is critical about stabilizing the connection and decreasing the temperature. The problem for Biden is Congress. On many events, it has been Congress that has scuttled or sophisticated the administration’s relationship with China, both by enacting new legal guidelines or taking political stands towards Taiwan which have angered Beijing, akin to final yr’s go to to Taipei by former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The Biden administration hopes that Wednesday’s assembly between the 2 leaders will steer their international locations on to a extra constructive path that helps them handle the competitors of their relationship. The administration prioritizes communication between the US and China, particularly their militaries, to make sure they keep away from any miscalculations or mishaps that would result in battle. If the summit may end up in the institution of strains of communication and might restore belief, this might pave the best way to progress on all main geopolitical points and guarantee companies that their investments in the way forward for the connection are protected.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is a marketing consultant on world points. She is a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.