By Raphael Parens

(FPRI) — After a number of weeks of tense diplomatic negotiations and saber-rattling between Niamey and Paris, President Emmanuel Macron’s authorities withdrew Ambassador Sylvain Itte and diplomatic employees from Niger in late September. France’s army mission plans to withdraw by the finish of 2023. Niger’s junta authorities seems completely tired of a unbroken safety relationship with France, reflecting a insecurity that will have inspired President Mohamed Bazoum’s ouster on July 6, 2023. 

France’s withdrawal could spell the tip of French agency Orano’s uranium mission in Niger’s northeast. Orano, which Paris controls with a 90 % share, is already pivoting in the direction of Mongolia and different companions in Central Asia. The corporate, to say nothing of Paris, seems all in favour of pursuing new relationships in much less prohibitive safety environments. Macron’s latest journey to Central Asia could mirror a French pivot in vitality coverage and funding. With out French funding, Niger’s mines might lie dormant—or be occupied by a malicious actor.

Niger’s Junta

Niger is simply the newest domino to fall within the Sahel, the place coups have returned at a blistering tempo. Coups have toppled governments in Mali twice, Burkina Faso, and Guinea since 2021. In Niamey, a army junta led by the Presidential Guard staged a coup in opposition to Bazoum, who can also be president of the Financial Neighborhood of West African States (ECOWAS) and an ally of France and the USA, on July 26, 2023. Whereas dispatching a basic to Mali to seek advice from Wagner Group, the junta authorities has sparred with ECOWAS, with many member states closing their borders to Niger and threatening army intervention to return Bazoum to energy.

France’s Nigerien Uranium Undertaking

France depends on nuclear energy as a key supply of its vitality manufacturing. France derives roughly 70 % of its electrical energy from nuclear energy. Niger was its second-largest provider at 20 % of French uranium imports over the previous ten years, trailing solely Kazakhstan at 27 %. Orano maintains majority shares in three mines in Niger: Aïr, Akokan, and Imouraren. Solely the Aïr mine operates at the moment, whereas Akokan is in rehabilitation mode, and Imouraren has been shuttered due to unfavorable market circumstances. Many in France worry {that a} junta authorities hostile to France might prohibit its entry to uranium reserves which might be essential to France’s energy crops. Whereas some politicians could overstate this concern as a matter of security, these deposits are positioned very near the more and more unstable border with Mali. 

Niger’s Uranium and Terrorism Historical past

Niger’s uranium mines, notably the Somaïr mine, have traditionally been focused by al-Qaeda within the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In 2010, 5 French and two African mine staff had been kidnapped within the close by city of Arlit. In 2013, AQIM exploded a automotive within the mine, killing one worker. Then, in 2016, AQIM’s al-Nasser brigade claimed a rocket assault on the mine, though there have been no casualties. 

The competitors between the Islamic State within the Better Sahel (ISGS) and AQIM within the space, the addition of a violent mercenary drive (Wagner Group) with restricted management to the fray, and an unstable post-coup surroundings in Niger might create an ideal storm. Sadly, Niger’s uranium mines is likely to be on the coronary heart of that storm. 

Though AQIM was the first terrorist group in Mali and Niger previous to 2015, the founding and enlargement of ISGS has occurred at breakneck velocity. After the withdrawal of Operation Barkhane in 2022 and because the United Nations Multidimensional Built-in Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) continues drawing down in Mali, each AQIM and ISGS have discovered new territories to take advantage of and contest. Combating between Wagner-backed Malian military forces and each Tuareg separatists and AQIM in Mali has lately moved into Kidal and Gao provinces, which each border Niger. Escalation into Menaka province might have critical results on Niger’s northwestern border close to the nation’s uranium mines.

Niger’s Uranium Threats Immediately

Escalated competitors between AQIM and ISGS, to not point out Boko Haram and Tuareg separatist forces throughout the Sahel, might put Niger’s mines below menace. These forces are combating Wagner Group and the nationwide militaries of Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and extra. Attacking the Nigerien authorities’s entry to considered one of Niger’s key financial exports could be a respectable technique by any of those teams to focus on a rival actor and sign legitimacy in their very own inter-jihadist energy struggles.

The circumstances on the bottom favor jihadist offensives. Mali is at the moment dealing with a safety vacuum, created by Junta President Assimi Goïta’s anti-Western agenda. The withdrawal of French and UN forces from Mali and Niger are leaving important gaps which were stuffed by AQIM and ISGS. Wagner Group’s program of executions, human rights violations, and failed counter-terror actions will proceed destabilizing Mali, accelerating Malian state insecurity, and certain eradicating any remaining Malian border safety forces with Niger. Niger’s means to withstand main jihadist offensives will possible be examined very quickly.

France’s ongoing diplomatic dispute with Niger’s junta authorities might lead to punitive motion taken in opposition to French-controlled components of the uranium mines, leaving them much less guarded than earlier than. Though the pinnacle of Orano’s mining enterprise unit has publicly acknowledged that Niger gives safety for Orano’s mines, the capability of such safety operations is changing into much less and fewer clear as France attracts down its army help from Niger.

Though Niger’s uranium reserves don’t signify a direct proliferation threat in a “soiled bomb,” jihadist management of a uranium mine could be a public relations nightmare and will feed disinformation campaigns. Uranium is prohibitively costly to pay attention and changing it right into a “weaponized” kind would require many costly and technologically prohibitive steps. It’s unlikely that AQIM or ISGS would attempt to use entry to a mine as a path towards creating a weapon. Ought to considered one of these teams attempt to smuggle this uranium elsewhere, they’d additionally run into a mess of points. The quantity of uranium wanted for enrichment would possible require worldwide transport, and there are quite a few worldwide safeguards and treaties to stop the illicit transshipment of nuclear supplies. 

Regardless of these limits on weaponizing Niger’s uranium mines within the conventional sense, jihadist teams might nonetheless trigger important political injury and instability. Ought to these mines be sabotaged, jihadist teams might trigger prohibitive injury to the native surroundings and groundwater provides. The optics of a terrorist group having access to any of those mines would offer notoriety to those teams, enhance recruitment, and gasoline native and even regional battle and instability. Certainly, jihadist teams might search to swing the narrative on uranium weaponization by disinformation campaigns, inspiring worry and panic by convincing Nigeriens {that a} nuclear menace may very well be realized. Such campaigns are tied to evolving al-Qaeda and Islamic State actions in Mali and Burkina Faso, and developments in a single West African state can have ripple results throughout the area.

Uranium and Niger’s Financial system

Lastly, a jihadist seizure of those uranium mines might irreparably injury the Nigerien economic system. Immediately, uranium ore makes up a whopping 75 % of Niger’s overseas exports. For the reason that coup, Niger has massively elevated the worth of uranium, from 0.80 euro/kg ($0.88/kg) to 200 euro/kg, in an try to match the prices of uranium produced in different nations worldwide, notably Canada. This tectonic shift displays the Nigerien junta’s curiosity in redefining its relationship with France, which benefited from low cost uranium bought in a former colony. Maybe Orano’s resolution to reorient a lot of its uranium enterprise in the direction of Central Asia displays a French need to punish Niger’s junta, which might be unsurprising after the unhealthy blood created by France’s withdrawal previously few months. It could even be sensible—as Paris sees escalating instability occurring in Niger and disinterested safety forces across the nation’s mining tasks. Regardless, with out entry to uranium income, Niger’s authorities could also be much more hamstrung in its effort to construct new safety structure in opposition to mounting jihadist threats.

Nonetheless, France’s loss could also be Europe’s achieve. Different EU states could enter the image, notably as a lot of Europe makes an attempt to disentangle itself from a dependency on Russian vitality amidst the conflict in Ukraine. Russia continues supplying the European Union with uranium ore, and a stoppage in Niger might stop future sanctions within the vitality sector in opposition to Russia. Pivoting this vitality partnership may very well be mutually useful for Niger and the European Union, as each exporters and importers face rising political instability of their respective areas. Nevertheless, the problem might be guaranteeing facility safety in distant northern Niger and alongside transportation routes.

Niger’s junta authorities might want to contemplate all of those advanced angles because it redefines its safety structure and export regime after forcing French army and diplomatic missions overseas. Safety and economics are intimately tied collectively, and any safety resolution would require a broad technique that displays the dangers and advantages of the nation’s uranium reserves.

The views expressed on this article are these of the writer alone and don’t essentially mirror the place of the International Coverage Analysis Institute, a non-partisan group that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles on American overseas coverage and nationwide safety priorities.

Concerning the writer: Raphael Parens is a Fellow within the International Coverage Analysis Institute’s Eurasia Program and a global safety researcher targeted on Europe, the Center East, and Africa. He makes a speciality of small armed teams and NATO modernization processes

Supply: This text was revealed by FPRI